20 games
Here's how I began my post after 10 games, when the Mariners were 3-7:
Every year after ~10 games we say, "It's early, and I'm not going to say anything crazy because it's early ... BUT the Mariners will never win again." And then 10 games later, what is true is almost entirely different.
Ten games feels like a long time. The Mariners went 7-3 in the latest stretch to return to .500. It's not functionally different than had it happened the other way, but the vibes are better. Things are trending up.
That's despite perhaps the most frustrating loss of the season on Friday, where the Mariners appeared locked in at the plate, only to run into four outs on the bases. Base running has been inconsistent this year. The Mariners now lead the league in stolen bases and rank 11th in BsR, but they also lead the league in caught stealing and have made a several untimely blunders. It's a talented and aggressive group, but there seems to be some failure in communication (evidenced by Rowdy Tellez, the literal slowest player in MLB, getting thrown at third twice in 10 days).
At the plate, however, the offense is rolling. The Mariners now have a 111 wRC+ -- the 10th best mark in MLB. They are third in walk rate, third in barrels, fifth in xwOBA, and tied sixth in homers. The Mariners are right back where they were after figuring it out last September:
The highlight of the stretch, which feels like forever ago, was the comeback win in the series finale with the Astros. The Mariners won the opener in a close, low-scoring game. They lost the following day in a 12-inning chore, where their batting average with runners in scoring position was plastered on the screen like a tornado warning. It was looking like a miserable off day ahead when the Mariners found themselves behind 5-0 in the bottom of the 8th, having done pretty much everything poorly, again.
And then Miles Mastrobuoni singled and J.P. Crawford walked and Julio walked and suddenly the bases were loaded with nobody out for Randy Arozarena.
The Mariners offense was here all at once.
The Mariners would go on to sweep the Rangers in three convincing victories. Cal picked up a torpedo bat in the first game of the series and proceeded to hit seven home runs in the next six games, including a few crucial ones in the series victory over Cincinnati. Dylan Moore started doing that thing he does where he hits like Mike Trout for a stretch and steals a bunch of bases and plays every position. Jorge Polanco continued to lace doubles (from one side of the plate). And Arozarena delivered more clutch moments.
The Rangers at 12-8 still lead the AL West, despite a pythag win total four games below .500. But with the sweep, the Mariners have a commanding lead in a tie breaker scenario. Winning the first five of six against the Rangers and Astros feels significant when the season began with a projected three-way tie for first place. And it doesn't hurt to see both rivals remain in the bottom 10 by wRC+.
Still, things can change quick. The Astros xwOBA over the last week suggests they're trending up, even if their results are dawdling behind. I have great respect for Yordan Alvarez, and the season is still "early" until he's in the top 5 on the wRC+ leaderboard. And while the Rangers offense looks bad by most metrics, I doubt Marcus Semien (17 wRC+) and Joc Pederson (-29 wRC+) will pace as The Worst Players in MLB for long.
There are 14 more 10-game series, and two games to pick a winner. The Mariners are keeping pace.
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