The Mariners offense is rolling
The new approach is working so far.
The Mariners offense is having an impressive stretch, with the latest outburst a confusing but effective 8-run, 12-hit, 18-strikeout performance in the Toronto series finale. The Mariners offense is now:
- T-5th in wRC+ (116)
- T-4th in xwOBA (.347)
- 3rd in walk rate (10.8%)
- T-5th in homers (32)
It's still too early to say much more than that. But I will. Buyer beware.
By xwOBA, the Mariners are in a far better spot than were at any point last year. The following is the Mariners rolling xwOBA chart -- each point represents the previous 1,000 plate appearances. Note the Mariners aren't quite to 1,000 plate appearances this year, so the most recent point still includes ~100 PAs from last September (again "it's early").
One of the sub-plots of this season is the Mariners new coaching staff and their impact on the offense. I like this chart because I think it makes clear the old coaching staff wasn't inherently the problem. Scott Servais and Jarret DeHart were clearly capable of stewarding a good offense, and the new offense has yet to achieve a stretch as good as August 2023.
But I also don't think it's pure coincidence the Mariners outlook changed after Dan Wilson and Edgar took over. For whatever reason, last year's group, which is now this year's group, didn't respond to the 2024 iteration of Control The Zone. If you believe teams offer specific wisdom and batters listen, then it's possible this group benefited from the right voice(s) at the right time, with a message we haven’t quite seen before.
The 2024 Mariners spent most of the season chasing the strikeout record. And the tradeoff was top 10 quality of contact -- they swung hard, and when they made contact, it worked. But contact was few and far between, and the Mariners total power numbers were not enough to offset the strikeouts. The type of contact they made is notable in hindsight. They finished with the third lowest ground ball rate, the most batted balls pulled in the air and the fewest batted balls to the opposite field. I don't know if "extreme" is the right word but it does seem quite specific.
Still, hard contact in the air is a good thing. So I was a bit concerned when Edgar and later Kevin Seitzer started spouting baseball truisms encouraging batters to "just get the ball in play up-the-middle-the-other-way."
Well, the Mariners thus far are making better contact than ever. The Mariners .636 xwOBA on fly balls and line drives not only leads the league but would be the best mark for any team in the Statcast era (if it held for 140 more games). They've maintained a top 10 pull rate in the air, but now they're also fifth in grounders to the opposite field. Maybe willingness to slap the ball against the shift helps explain the Mariners puzzlingly-low strikeout rate. They still whiff a lot and they're chasing more -- they're not better at avoiding two-strike counts. But they are better at making decisions in two strike counts and ultimately getting the ball in play. The tradeoff is the third highest barrel rate in MLB.
Whatever the strategy, it's working for now. The new coaching staff's first game was August 23, 2024. In the 2,188 plate appearances since, the Mariners have a 122 wRC+, which is tied for the best in MLB over that stretch. It's a sample the size of roughly one-third of a season.
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