Game 1 - The perpetual projection
The Mariners took the first step Thursday towards an 86-76 record, or more or less.
The Mariners lost 6-4 in last night’s 2024 season opener against the Red Sox. It was a disappointing result after a long winter, but every season opener has its charm (unless you’re the Rockies). The new players made the long, stilted jog down the magenta carpet. A man did body rolls with a flaming trident. A fully-uniformed Ichiro presented Julio Rodríguez with the Silver Slugger Award. Nelson Cruz spiked the inaugural first pitch, and then signed a one day contract to finish his career as a Mariner. Starbucks was the official sponsor of the national anthem. Later on, Félix hugged a fish.
A little fun, a little weird, wholly earnest, and authentically Mariners. I try not get too hung up on the baseball part of Opening Day—there’s plenty to come.
Despite the loss, this is by far the most confident I’ve been on Opening Day since I was old enough to know better. The Mariners have a good, competitive, well-rounded roster. They have genuine stars, established veterans, burgeoning youth, and practical depth. The moves made over the offseason were shrewd and pragmatic, even if at times it was difficult to see the forest for the trees.
This team seems better.
But the projections disagree.
Some of that is a reflection of last year’s team. Despite how insufferable they could be, and despite winning only 88 games and missing the playoffs, the 2023 Mariners were already pretty good. They finished sixth in batter fWAR, third in pitcher fWAR, and seventh in Pythag win percentage with 92 expected wins.
Many of the players who helped the Mariners reach those marks are now gone. And the players brought in to replace them aren’t projected as upgrades. According to ZiPS, the Mariners brought in 10.4 projected fWAR and sent out 10.7.
Overall, ZiPS pegs the Mariners at 42.3 fWAR, or roughly 86 wins.1
Now, 86 wins would be a perfectly fine season and might result in a playoff appearance. In fact, the team this offseason came right out and said their primary long-term goal is to build a roster that’s perpetually projected in that 86-90 win range. I think that’s a fine strategy and one the Mariners have executed well to this point.
But 86 wins would likely disqualify the Mariners from the AL West.2 And even if 86 wins were enough to win the AL West, the Mariners would still be outsiders on the list of preeminent MLB organizations. It would be another season in the category of good, not great, and far from excellent.
The season isn’t played in Excel, of course. The Mariners aren’t guaranteed nor limited to 86 wins this year.3 But projections are a snapshot of the quality of a team in the context of baseball history (at least, the history as synthesized by Dan Szymborski).
Here’s my read on ZiPS this year:
The Mariners have perhaps the best and/or deepest vanguard rotation in MLB. They have a good, potentially great bullpen with multiple high leverage arms. They have a deep, flexible lineup with at least one elite run producer, a few other high level players, and several veterans with past success in MLB.
The Mariners have a third base platoon that posted -13.1 wRAA last year. They have a corner outfield tandem that posted -0.7 fWAR last year. Neither of the two best players they brought in this offseason played in more the 90 games last year. And their greatest strength teeters on the most tenuous premise in professional sports—pitcher health.
So no doubt there’s great potential with this roster, but weaknesses are exposed over 162 games. ZiPS reminds us to follow the pain.
Still, if there’s ever a season the Mariners could beat their projection, this feels like it might be the one. The rotation gives them a chance to win every night, and the bullpen should help secure those projection-beating one-run games. I also don’t foresee any position players racking up massive negative values as in years past.
And while every team sounds enlightened in Spring Training, there have been countless comments from every level of the organization this offseason suggesting the team has bought into a collective strategy. And not just a general, vague, rah rah bullshit philosophy, but real, specific, actionable strategies in every area of the game—from swing decisions to pitch usage to player personnel. These are things that, when done collectively and with fidelity, could allow them to perform at a level greater than sum of their parts.
So maybe the Mariners are a true talent 86 win team. But it feels like they have the personnel and the momentum to defy history in 2024.
Note that the standard team WAR to team wins conversion is typically WAR + 48.6, because a replacement level team is expected to win about 30% of their games. That would actually put the Mariners at about 90 wins. However, Fangraphs runs ZiPS through a model to factor playing time, strength of schedule, etc.
The last time 86 wins was enough to win the AL West was in 1987. Since then, only two teams have won the AL West with fewer than 90 wins.
Szymborski on Wednesday wrote that the Mariners are the team with the highest year-to-year correlation with ZiPS projections. The r-squared? 0.03.