Game 11 - More bad sequencing, more inconsistency
Another decent offensive performance undone by consistency (or lack thereof).
The Mariners lost 5-2 on Monday in Toronto. They had just seven hits, two walks and 10 strikeouts, and never really put pressure on Blue Jays pitchers. But it’s another game where they seemed to be better than the box score. The Mariners posted a .373 xwOBA. Of their batted balls, 41% were harder than 100 mph. Their launch angle quality was close to flawless, too. They just couldn’t get anything to land for a hit.
Of the Mariners nine base runners on Monday, five came with two outs and the bases empty. They’re now up to 20% of their hits or walks this year coming with two outs and the bases empty—the most in MLB. The pressure of a base runner isn’t the same with two outs, and run expectancy goes way down.
Some of that is unfortunate sequencing and should naturally correct itself over the course of the season. But some of that is a lack of consistency—the Mariners aren’t stringing together good at bats. Scott Servais continued to hammer consistency after the game.
Luis Castillo pitched OK but not great. He often worked ahead in counts quickly, but then he couldn’t put batters away—missing around the zone, then catching too much of the zone.
“His stuff has been fine, it’s more about the execution,” Servais said. “Sometimes the ball has been in the middle of the plate at the wrong times, to the wrong hitters.”
I did see some conversation on Lookout Landing about concern with Castillo’s velocity, which is still a bit down compared to last season’s average. And while it’s true that his velocity has gone down season over season with age, his velocity typically picks up over the course of the season before dipping towards the end.
Castillo’s velocity by in-season start number
There’s potentially other interesting metrics that improve with time for Castillo, but more on that in the future.