Game 15 - OAA Against
No team has faced better defense than the Mariners this season.
The Mariners pushed across just one run on five hits in a 4-1 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. It wasn’t a great offensive performance, but once again the Mariners seemed to play better than the final box score.
I wrote earlier this week about the Mariners offensive woes. My main takeaway was that they’ve done several things well this year but haven’t quite broken through, in part due to poor BABIP luck. I initially didn’t think too hard about why until Christopher Morel robbed the Mariners of multiple runs on consecutive great plays in Saturday’s loss. With runners on first and second, Morel made a diving play to snare a 105 mph grounder off the bat of Mitch Garver. Morel then made a fully outstretched leaping grab to rob Dylan Moore of a hit.
It’s not just Morel. Mariners opponents have posted nine Outs Above Average this year and eight runs saved—both league highs—suggesting they’ve faced better defense than any other team so far. Again, the Mariners have exposed themselves to negative BABIP outcomes by struggling to make contact, but they also haven’t been properly rewarded when they do make contact. The Mariners .382 xwOBAcon now ranks top 10th in MLB, but their actual wOBAcon is 25th at .330 —the second largest discrepancy in MLB.
It’s unlikely they’ll continue to face that level of defense, although they may have to endure a bit longer when the Reds come to town on Monday—Cincinnati leads MLB in OAA so far.
Emerson Hancock looked pretty OK. He gave up just four hits and walked none in a career high six innings. He only got eight whiffs and gave up some hard contact. His velocity also continued to dip in and out—his fastball touched 95 in the sixth but also 91. Again, I saw nothing to suggest Hancock should be a permanent member of the rotation, but he continues to look like a passable MLB starting pitcher.