Swings & Takes

Game 4 - Mariners plan for quick start off to slow start

The Mariners offense struggled in the season’s first series. How and when they adjust could determine how far they go in 2024—and they know it this time.

The Mariners lost 5-1 on Sunday in the series finale with the Red Sox. The offense collected four hits and struck out 10 times as they were stumped again by Boston pitching. The Mariners in their first four games posted a 45 wRC+ and a 32.8% strikeout rate—both second worst in MLB in the new season.

It’s not the quick start they were hoping for.

Scott Servais told reporters the offense needs to be more consistent in their approach.

“We are just off to a slow start. There’s no excuse for it. It’s just where we’re at, and we need to make some adjustments. It’s about shrinking the strike zone and not expanding it. And we are expanding it too much right now.”

“We went 2-2. We’re OK. I don’t want to read too much into that or get too high or too low.” 

It’s just four games, but starting slow has been an ongoing issue for the Mariners. Since 2021, the Mariners have gone 78-82 in April and May, and 190-136 in all other months (a 95 win pace). It’s simply taken too long to get going, especially on offense. In fact, the last three seasons they’ve posted a 94 wRC+ in April and May and 106 wRC+ in all other months. A better start in 2024 could be the difference between winning the AL West or settling for the Wild Card—or worse.

In Spring Training, Servais spoke with Shannon Drayer about getting off to a better start. One thing he reiterated from previous seasons is that he still thinks it takes about 40 games to “situate” the roster. The first 40 games are crucial for exposing players to different situations and building confidence, he said. It’s an opportunity to see how players handle adversity.

That is fine—to an extent. Every player is going to have ups and downs over the course of a season, and it’s important to let them work through it. But in the past, certain players were left in to struggle for too long. Kolten Wong posted -6.8 wRAA in 80 plate appearances last April before the Mariners throttled his playing time. In 2022, Jarred Kelenic ran a near 40% strikeout rate in 96 plate appearances and often seemed to come up with the game on the line.

Servais said doesn’t want to “totally get away from that” this year, but admitted he might have “a bit shorter leash on how often I do that.”

“It’s not like you’re not trying to win the game in April,” he said. “But you tried to weigh the positives and negatives of letting that young player or young pitcher try to work out of his own mess versus just like, ‘Let’s just try to clean it up right now and move forward and give us the best chance to win the game in the moment.’”

To be clear, Servais was often forced into that dilemma by the construction of the roster itself. Much has been made about who the Mariners did or didn’t target for Plan A in prior seasons. But the bigger issue is that they often stopped short of filling out the full roster. The end of the bench on Opening Day the last few years has been José Marmolejos or AJ Pollock or Tommy La Stella or others who were either unproven or proven ineffective. And when one Plan A player struggled and another got hurt and another got swallowed by an unpredictable park effect, there wasn’t contingency available.

That shouldn’t be the case this year. The front office did well this offseason to bring in guys already established in MLB. Not only are they less likely to struggle (for periods longer than four games), their confidence doesn’t need to be built in quite the same way—Servais can prioritize winning from the drop.

It also helps that many of the players brought in this year can play multiple positions or fill a variety of roles. Jerry Dipoto talked to Drayer in February about the “versatility and flexibility” of the roster.

“If somebody misses considerable time, you’re not backfilling by going down to the minor leagues and getting someone who’s largely unproven. You’re bringing in players who have had success at the major league level. That kind of depth built into a 26-man roster is really valuable over a 162 game-season.”

That doesn’t mean all the options will work or that the roster will flow seamlessly through struggles and injury. But there is real, practical depth here in a way there hasn’t been in a long time.

The players seem to have placed greater emphasis on the early season as well. J.P. Crawford talked to Daniel Kramer this spring about a new collective approach on offense. He said the primary difference this year is the level of focus from day one.

“We're starting it in the spring and not in the middle of the summer. So it's pretty cool to see us getting dialed in right away. That way, when the summer comes, we're not chasing something. We're going to be ready from Day 1.”

The key to success early in the season is consistency, Servais told Drayer.

“There has been a big-time emphasis on talking about it in our clubhouse by our players,” he said. “They understand every game really matters. And when you’re in a division like ours, which is going to be super competitive, if you can get off to a good start, it really helps things. It raises expectations in your clubhouse, it raises expectations of your fanbase, people show up at the ballpark. Instead of just, ‘Well, we’ve got to turn it on because the trading deadline is coming’ – that’s kind of what’s happened the last couple years – I want to turn it on right from the beginning and our guys are in a much different mindset this way.”

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