Game 5 - A full rotation
The Mariners showcased their quality and depth at starting pitcher in the first pass through the rotation.
Emerson Hancock looked more than capable on Monday in a 5-4 win over the Guardians. He gave up some hard contact and only struck out one. His velocity also dipped over the course of the game—he’s clearly not a true mid-90s pitcher yet. But he pounded the zone with all four pitches and generated a solid 23% whiff rate.1 It wasn’t at all out of place as a Major League pitching performance.
For all the handwringing about the Mariners offense (which looked good on Monday), the Mariners rotation in the first five games offered a reminder of where this team’s potential lies. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert both dominated in their first pass, and either seems likely to make a run at the AL Cy Young this year. Luis Castillo struggled a bit with his command (and with the umpire), but the movement and velocity are still there—he’s sure to join the Cy Young hunt as well. I honestly did not watch Bryce Miller’s start but the new splitter looked great and his stuff generated plenty of whiffs. And again, Hancock’s outing provided assurance that there’s quality depth behind Bryan Woo, who should make his season debut in the next few weeks.
The Mariners have six known legitimate starting pitching options, giving them the deepest and possibly best rotation in the league on paper.
The front office this offseason leaned into that depth as the main strength of this year’s roster. There was plenty of speculation about whether they would trade from the rotation to fill holes in the offense, but a deal never materialized.
“The more we’ve talked about it internally, the more we have wrapped our arms around the idea of just leaning into what we do best,” Jerry Dipoto told Shannon Drayer in early January.
“We pitch.”
The plan to fix the offense by trading a starting pitcher always felt a bit too convenient. For whatever reason, the Mariners haven’t had as much success in the past in acquiring batters. Maybe it’s been good process spoiled by bad luck, an imperfect culture fit, or an unpredictable stadium effect. Or maybe they just aren’t as proficient at identifying and developing offense. Regardless, there seems to be added risk for the Mariners when trading for a batter.
Pitchers, on the other hand, are close to a sure thing for the Mariners. The organization has perhaps the league’s most extensive resume of success in pitching development—from drafting prospects who turn into great starters in MLB, to turning unknown reclamation projects into useful depth options, to pulling high leverage relievers from the ether. The Mariners know pitching, and they know how to get the most out of their pitchers.
And as Justin Hollander explained this offseason, runs saved are still runs.
“When you are trading off your major league team, you are removing wins from the table, you are removing players who are going to contribute wins today,” Hollander said. “So the idea of trading today’s wins and getting back the same number of wins in a different shape? You look a little different but are you really any better by doing that?”
It’s also not as if the Mariners have too much pitching. Six starters is a great core, but they’ll likely need twice as many over the course of the season.2 The depth they’ve built up from the outset should allow them to avoid the long stretches of black hole rotation spots and bullpen days and games they would otherwise have to punt.
The Mariners rotation is a real competitive advantage and gives them a shot to win every day in 2024.
“When you have young pitching, it’s really hard to find” Hollander said. “Don’t treat it lightly.”
There were also a couple fluke moments that hurt his overall line. Ramon Laureano swung and miss on a hit by pitch but still got first base due to the nature of the challenge system; he later came around to score. Julio created an inadvertent home run after knocking a ball over the fence with his glove.
Even in their historically healthy 2022 season, the Mariners