J.P. Crawford is still different now
The potential is still there for J.P. Crawford.
I want to return to something I wrote about Crawford back in March of 2021âthe very first post I wrote for Swings & Takes. At the time, Crawford was 26 and had fewer than 1000 plate appearances in MLB with a 90 wRC+. It was assumed he would be a glove-first short stop for however long that skillset could qualify him for an MLB roster. But what I found back then was Crawford had shown (very) excellent plate discipline numbers to that point in his career. It seemed an even modest bump in quality of contact could make him a good or even great batter overall.
It took a couple years, but thatâs exactly what happened. In 2023, Crawford added 3 mph to his average exit velocity, seven points to his hard hit rate, and (reportedly) 6 mph to his average bat speed. His quality of contact went from among the league's worst to just about average. Combined with an already excellent approach, he posted a 136 wRC+ â one of the 15 most productive batter seasons of 2023. For reference, he had the season that ZiPS now projects Bobby Witt Jr.
Then in 2024, Crawford posted an 89 wRC+.
Many of the underlying âtrue talentâ indicators Crawford had improved in 2023 remained in 2024. His hard hit rate and his barrel rate actually ticked up. And while we canât do a long-term comparison, his bat speed was just about identical in either yearâwhatever oomph he added in 2023 didnât just go away.
What changed was Crawfordâs strikeout and walk rates, which each moved three points in the wrong direction (among the largest year-to-year changes for either metric). Thatâs crucial. Crawford didnât necessarily remake himself into a slugger in his uber-productive 2023, but rather he added average-ish power on top of an elite K/BB ratio. Those non-BIP at bats will always be the cornerstone of his production, and that they dropped from elite to simply good took away a chunk of his game.
But Crawfordâs more granular plate discipline numbers were still quite strong in 2024. He didnât chase more bad pitches, and he didnât watch more good pitches go by. By my quick and easy approach metric, which measures a batterâs commitment to swinging at pitches down the middle, Crawford had his best year yet.
So where did the extra strikeouts come from?
Whatâs interesting is Crawfordâs performance in two strike counts was the same in 2023 and 2024. His swing rate didnât change, his chase rate didnât change, and his whiff rate didnât change. Crawford simply found himself in two strike counts way more often, and the number of plate appearances he took to two strikes jumped 6.5 points. I have two theories why:
The first may actually be a bit of poor luck. Crawfordâs called strike rate on shadow pitches (borderline pitches that could be called either way) jumped nearly 8 points. He wasnât necessarily an outlier here, but he went from roughly average every year to the top 10% in 2024. One could argue this is a sign his ability to discern the edge of the strike zone got worse, but given the other discipline metrics still looked elite, Iâm comfortable extending the benefit of the doubt.
The second is more problematic. Crawfordâs ability to convert good swing decisions to balls in play took a bit of a dip. He wasnât necessarily whiffing (much) more, but he was fouling off a number of pitches right down the middle, especially early in the count. This was actually a team wide issue for the Mariners in 2024 and something I wrote about a lot last year (and something that notably changed once Edgar took over as batting coach).
Worse counts explain the extra strikeouts and fewer walks, and it also explains the dip in total performance on contact despite maintaining the Driveline-boosted peripherals. More two strike counts meant more at bats where the end goal was to simply get the ball in play. We can actually see that directly on his xwOBAcon on heart pitches before two strikes. That peak performance ceiling was still there and maybe even higher than the year before.
This chart brings up a less flattering nuance. Crawfordâs xwOBAcon plummeted in the first stretch of 2024. He ran a 60% ground ball rate in April. It was one of the worst contact stretches for any player in 2024, and the worst of his career. Yes, his launch angle issues seemed to self-correct rather quickly, and his numbers were strong from May through July--he avoided the prolonged stretch of non-competitive contact that limited him early in his career. But then he broke his pinky, and when he returned in September, the ground balls were back. That's concerning. Consistency is a big deal when the margins are so slim, and Crawford canât simply muscle his way through cold spells. Consistency is the difference between Freddie Freeman and Taylor Ward and AndrĂŠs GimĂŠnez.
But I wanted to emphasize today Crawford is mostly the same player we saw in 2023, even if the results last year were much worse. The elite plate discipline is still there, the now-good-enough BIP skill is still there, and so the potential is still there.
--