10 games
Every year after ~10 games we say, "It's early, and I'm not going to say anything crazy because it's early ... BUT the Mariners will never win again." And then 10 games later, what is true is almost entirely different.
The Mariners are 3-7. They are last in the AL West. The hitting has been roughly average, the pitching has been roughly average, and the defense and base running have been the worst in MLB. The good news is the Astros and Rangers have both struggled (even more) than the Mariners on offense, and the division looks weak. The bad news is both have pitched better than the Mariners, and the Rangers have banked eight wins that count for real.
The 2024 Mariners offer their own cautionary tale for looking to October before, well, October. There are 15 more 10-game stretches left in a season, and two games to matter.
Base running
One thing about the rosy projections for the Mariners offense is they were boosted by solid base running value. I'm not sure how one "projects" base running, and it was never going to be a massive source of runs. But it seemed plausible the Mariners might have a way to create something more out of the uber-BIP-suppressive T-Mobile Park.
Through 10 games, the Mariners are tied for the worst base running team in MLB by BsR. They've stolen a lot of bases, but they're also tied for the most caught stealing, and they've been thrown out at the plate multiple times.
The Mariners biggest problem the last two weeks was they failed to string multiple hits together, but that they ran themselves out of multiple innings didn't help.
Whiffs and defense
I'm combining two here because they're things that have been predictably bad.
I'm not sure what can be said about the Mariners whiffs problem that hasn't been said. You know it by heart. The Mariners whiff a lot. They're second in MLB with a 31.1% whiff rate, which is 3 points higher than their whiff rate last April. The gains they made last September (and attributed to Edgar) haven't carried into the new season. Whiffs aren't everything, but they're there.
The defense is bad and apparently changing. Jorge Polanco has been very bad at third base and is not healthy after all, inspiring whispers that he's moving to DH. Victor Robles got hurt on Sunday making a miracle catch, and Dom Canzone is apparently the replacement, though it's possible Luke Raley might move back to the outfield. The Mariners defense has been the worst in MLB by Fangraphs WAR, and second to last by Outs Above Average.
Dan Wilson
This is pure commentary on my part. Dan Wilson makes me uneasy. I don't think managers matter a ton, and I don't see why Wilson couldn't become a good manager with experience. If he's a reason Cal Raleigh is staying, then he's already added value.
But I also don't think the Mariners are in a position to sacrifice even decimals of runs in 2025. I wrote last week about my concerns for the Mariners having a "true closer," and while there haven't been any indefensible bullpen moves, the levers he's pulled haven't filled me with confidence. The bunting has been annoying, especially in Friday's game, when he gave away an out to (successfully) move runners over, only for the Giants to intentionally walk Julio. A number of decisions in that game felt like he was simply trying to keep up with the Giants, even when they were ahead. I don't like that.
And maybe this is more directed at the front office -- I remain confused about what is going on with Rowdy Telez and Donovan Solano.
Approach
The Mariners are being super aggressive on pitches in the heart of the plate, and they're laying off pitches way outside the zone. Yes, they're whiffing on a lot of those heart pitches, but they also haven't struck out a ton -- they've been in two-strike counts far less often than last year. Maybe that's something, or maybe we're about to see a lot more strikeouts.
Still, the Mariners are third in walk rate, eighth in homers, and 11th in on-base percentage. They're also last in doubles (after playing in the two most BIP-suppressing parks in MLB). But for context, this would be the Mariners best April wOBA since 2022, and the second best xwOBA split for any month of the post-retool era (after August '23).
I tend to agree with what Julio said after Sunday's game:
“The way that I see it, [the Giants] are a really good team, and we’re playing really good ball. Like, they’re one of the hottest teams in the MLB, and we were neck-and-neck and they have [home] field advantage,” Rodríguez said. “I think it would have been a different story if we were playing at home. But that’s just it. Ain’t nothing to regroup about. Ain’t nothing to say, ‘Oh, like, do this better or do this-that.’
“We’re playing [a] really good ballgame. And if you ask me, I think we’re a really good spot 10 games in.”
There are 20 more games this month.
--