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The Mariners offense is rolling
The new approach is working so far.
The Mariners offense is having an impressive stretch, with the latest outburst a confusing but effective 8-run, 12-hit, 18-strikeout performance in the Toronto series finale. The Mariners offense is now:
- T-5th in wRC+ (116)
- T-4th in xwOBA (.347)
- 3rd in walk rate (10.8%)
- T-5th in homers (32)
It's still too early to say much more than that. But I will. Buyer beware.
By xwOBA, the Mariners are in a far better spot than were at any point last year. The following is the Mariners rolling xwOBA chart -- each point represents the previous 1,000 plate appearances. Note the Mariners aren't quite to 1,000 plate appearances this year, so the most recent point still includes ~100 PAs from last September (again "it's early").
One of the sub-plots of this season is the Mariners new coaching staff and their impact on the offense. I like this chart because I think it makes clear the old coaching staff wasn't inherently the problem. Scott Servais and Jarret DeHart were clearly capable of stewarding a good offense, and the new offense has yet to achieve a stretch as good as August 2023.
But I also don't think it's pure coincidence the Mariners outlook changed after Dan Wilson and Edgar took over. For whatever reason, last year's group, which is now this year's group, didn't respond to the 2024 iteration of Control The Zone. If you believe teams offer specific wisdom and batters listen, then it's possible this group benefited from the right voice(s) at the right time, with a message we havenât quite seen before.
The 2024 Mariners spent most of the season chasing the strikeout record. And the tradeoff was top 10 quality of contact -- they swung hard, and when they made contact, it worked. But contact was few and far between, and the Mariners total power numbers were not enough to offset the strikeouts. The type of contact they made is notable in hindsight. They finished with the third lowest ground ball rate, the most batted balls pulled in the air and the fewest batted balls to the opposite field. I don't know if "extreme" is the right word but it does seem quite specific.
Still, hard contact in the air is a good thing. So I was a bit concerned when Edgar and later Kevin Seitzer started spouting baseball truisms encouraging batters to "just get the ball in play up-the-middle-the-other-way."
Well, the Mariners thus far are making better contact than ever. The Mariners .636 xwOBA on fly balls and line drives not only leads the league but would be the best mark for any team in the Statcast era (if it held for 140 more games). They've maintained a top 10 pull rate in the air, but now they're also fifth in grounders to the opposite field. Maybe willingness to slap the ball against the shift helps explain the Mariners puzzlingly-low strikeout rate. They still whiff a lot and they're chasing more -- they're not better at avoiding two-strike counts. But they are better at making decisions in two strike counts and ultimately getting the ball in play. The tradeoff is the third highest barrel rate in MLB.
Whatever the strategy, it's working for now. The new coaching staff's first game was August 23, 2024. In the 2,188 plate appearances since, the Mariners have a 122 wRC+, which is tied for the best in MLB over that stretch. It's a sample the size of roughly one-third of a season.
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20 games
Here's how I began my post after 10 games, when the Mariners were 3-7:
Every year after ~10 games we say, "It's early, and I'm not going to say anything crazy because it's early ... BUT the Mariners will never win again." And then 10 games later, what is true is almost entirely different.
Ten games feels like a long time. The Mariners went 7-3 in the latest stretch to return to .500. It's not functionally different than had it happened the other way, but the vibes are better. Things are trending up.
That's despite perhaps the most frustrating loss of the season on Friday, where the Mariners appeared locked in at the plate, only to run into four outs on the bases. Base running has been inconsistent this year. The Mariners now lead the league in stolen bases and rank 11th in BsR, but they also lead the league in caught stealing and have made a several untimely blunders. It's a talented and aggressive group, but there seems to be some failure in communication (evidenced by Rowdy Tellez, the literal slowest player in MLB, getting thrown at third twice in 10 days).
At the plate, however, the offense is rolling. The Mariners now have a 111 wRC+ -- the 10th best mark in MLB. They are third in walk rate, third in barrels, fifth in xwOBA, and tied sixth in homers. The Mariners are right back where they were after figuring it out last September:
The highlight of the stretch, which feels like forever ago, was the comeback win in the series finale with the Astros. The Mariners won the opener in a close, low-scoring game. They lost the following day in a 12-inning chore, where their batting average with runners in scoring position was plastered on the screen like a tornado warning. It was looking like a miserable off day ahead when the Mariners found themselves behind 5-0 in the bottom of the 8th, having done pretty much everything poorly, again.
And then Miles Mastrobuoni singled and J.P. Crawford walked and Julio walked and suddenly the bases were loaded with nobody out for Randy Arozarena.
The Mariners offense was here all at once.
The Mariners would go on to sweep the Rangers in three convincing victories. Cal picked up a torpedo bat in the first game of the series and proceeded to hit seven home runs in the next six games, including a few crucial ones in the series victory over Cincinnati. Dylan Moore started doing that thing he does where he hits like Mike Trout for a stretch and steals a bunch of bases and plays every position. Jorge Polanco continued to lace doubles (from one side of the plate). And Arozarena delivered more clutch moments.
The Rangers at 12-8 still lead the AL West, despite a pythag win total four games below .500. But with the sweep, the Mariners have a commanding lead in a tie breaker scenario. Winning the first five of six against the Rangers and Astros feels significant when the season began with a projected three-way tie for first place. And it doesn't hurt to see both rivals remain in the bottom 10 by wRC+.
Still, things can change quick. The Astros xwOBA over the last week suggests they're trending up, even if their results are dawdling behind. I have great respect for Yordan Alvarez, and the season is still "early" until he's in the top 5 on the wRC+ leaderboard. And while the Rangers offense looks bad by most metrics, I doubt Marcus Semien (17 wRC+) and Joc Pederson (-29 wRC+) will pace as The Worst Players in MLB for long.
There are 14 more 10-game series, and two games to pick a winner. The Mariners are keeping pace.
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Dan Wilsons again
The Mariners on Thursday illustrated why the best managers have long since abandoned the "closer," and also why managers don't matter that much.
My strongest opinion on managers is that they likely have minimal impact on games and seasons. Or more accurately, the margins on the decisions they're forced to make aren't large enough to override CHAOS. Scott Servais didn't manage the fun differential, the fun differential managed him. But my actual feelings must be more complicated, as Dan Wilson is now the topic I've spent the most time writing about this year. Wilson is new, and because he's new, and because I liked his predecessor a lot, and because I don't quite share the same feelings for Wilson (yet), everything he does feels controversial.
And nothing has felt so controversial as the bullpen management on Thursday.
Emerson Hancock gave the Mariners five strong innings, and Gabe Speier added a sixth. The Mariners were up 4-2 heading into the seventh when Wilson turned to Carlos Vargas. Vargas got an out and then loaded the bases. The leverage index moved from medium to quite high. Wilson stuck with him. Vargas allowed a run on a sac fly and then got out of the jam.
The Mariners got a run back in the top of the eighth to extend their lead to 5-3. Wilson brought in Eduardo Bazardo in the bottom of the inning. Bazardo got an out and then loaded the bases. The next batter would be the highest leverage moment of the game (5.87 on the leverage index). Bazardo gave up a grand slam. The Reds took the lead.
Now, from my perspective, in either spot is where you must use your best reliever when available. That's undoubtedly Andrés Muñoz. But Muñoz wasn't available because he's not a reliever, he's a closer. I don't like that strategy. And I will never like that strategy. One of Servais' credos I greatly admired was something along the lines of, "Win the game/situation in front of you now." I don't like the idea of holding onto your best weapon in a crucial spot in order to save him for an equally crucial spot that may never present itself. Win now, not later. I think this was about as obvious a "bad bullpen move" Wilson has given us so far, and it bit him in the ass.
But also, it didn't. The Mariners tied the game in the top of the ninth, held on in the bottom of the inning, scored four runs in the 10th, and won. It's almost the perfect illustration of why the modern manager is valued more for their ability to speak to the press than their tactical insight. The gap between good and bad managerial strategy tends to be closed by "baseball will baseball."
It didn't feel great to see Muñoz enter the game in the 10th in a non-save situation and in the lowest leverage reliever appearance of the game. And I strongly disagreed with the decisions that led up to that. However, had the Mariners not scored four runs in the 10th -- had they scored just one -- Muñoz would have entered not only in the most crucial moment of the game but perhaps the most crucial moment of the season so far. Wilson would have looked like a genius.
And that's how it goes. There's a trillion counterfactuals in bullpen management. Many of those scenarios do indeed favor holding onto your best reliever, even if more of them suggest to use them as soon as necessary. We also don't have most of the information that goes into who pitches when and why.
It's unfortunate that I'll probably only write about Wilson when he does something I don't care for, because I've found nearly all his moves to be on the continuum from defensible to "oh hey, that was pretty shrewd." I just hope he abandons the closer thing soon.
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